A Tale of Two Scientists & World Population
by John Heffner
If an evolutionist and a creationist both went downtown to a major library to research world population in the past and calculate the average annual growth rates for each century, they would BOTH come away with the following facts:
(1) There is reliable data on world population for only a few centuries back.
(2) During the ‘plague years’, the growth rate was only .318% globally, but the other centuries were around .7% to 1.8% globally. (Today the US growth due to births alone is about 1.7% and third world countries is about 4%).
(3) The AVERAGE annual growth rate (birth rate minus death rate) would come out slightly under one half of one percent throughout recorded history. The actual percent is ~ .456%. This is a scientific calculation from the data available from the approximately 400 years of recorded history on population.
Now both scientists go back to their offices to work with their data. First the evolutionist plugs in his data into the formula for human world population1: P = P0 ert. He puts into the formula a 2 for P0 which is for one man + one woman (the original Homo Sapiens ‘couple’), 2.718 for e, the base of natural logarithms, and raise 2.718 to the product of “r” .456% (.00456 in the calculator) times “t” of 500,000 years. To his great amazement, he does not get the current world population of 6.5 billion (6.5 X 109) people. We know this is the correct population due to census figures. Something must be wrong. He checks and rechecks his assumptions: One man / one woman, under one half of one percent growth rate, and a half a million years of Homo sapiens (Biology, by Raven and Johnson, p. 525). Still he gets the astronomical figure of 2.45 X 10990!!! Something is drastically wrong. This is more people than all the electrons that could be packed into the universe. He sets out to tweak the data so he can arrive at the known world population of 6.5 billion (6.5 X 109). He can’t reduce the initial population (one man / one woman), and his evolutionary commitment compels him to accept the 500,000 year figure, so there is only one element of the formula he can tweak: growth rate. After doing the math, he finds that he has to use an average annual growth rate that is ridiculously small (.00438%) which is virtually NO GROWTH at all for thousands and thousands of years and is also in direct violation of the rates he just calculated in the library which has a measured and scientific basis as opposed to imaginary speculation. With a growth rate of only .00438%, (.0000438 in the calculator), this couple would have had 10,000 anniversaries before they would have finally added a third human to the global population! In reality, extinction would have occurred! If the evolutionist starts with more than one couple, it only gets worse for him since his numbers already say there should be trillions times trillions more people on the planet than there REALLY are. He is depressed and decides to put it aside for another day.
On the other hand, the creationist takes his library data back to his office and plugs it into the same formula (which he knows is accurate based on research, calculations, and historical records). He knows that it would not be accurate to start at the time of creation since history records a massive death-event about 4500 years ago (the Flood of Noah’s day) that reduced the human population to 8 people (Genesis 9:19). Starting with these 8 people for Po, .456% for the growth rate, r, and 4500 years for time, his computer prints out a world population of 6.5 billion (6.5 X 109). He smiles and is thankful that the biblical record is easy to verify mathematically based on the REAL world of data that requires no fanciful mental gymnastics to come up with a growth rate NEVER OBSERVED in human history to make evolutionary assumptions ‘work’. He has compassion for those who are shaping their world view based on erroneous assumptions and highly suspect figures. The only way 500,000 years can be made to ‘arrive’ at 6.5 billion people is to drastically reduce the growth rate to .00438% (.0000438 in the calculator). Evolutionists love vast amounts of time. Perhaps they believe they can hide obvious evolutionary problems behind the shield of time….”give it enough time and anything is possible” they often say.
The above figures remove this shield by showing how far the growth rate must go down to accommodate the time going up so high (500,000) years. My contention is that the average growth rate was never that low (for long) nor has the time for man been 500,000 years. On the other hand, the biblical record checks out just fine.
1 Smith, Karl J., Pre-Calculus , 4th edition, p. 200